Risks and Opportunities in Agriculture and Forestry

People often forge a strong connection with the land they live on, particularly farmers whose livelihoods depend on the fields they have cultivated for generations. Similarly, many landowners show deep care for their forests, managing them with the goal of preserving them for future generations. Forestry also contributes significantly to landowners' incomes, providing a stable financial buffer, especially when farming yields are unpredictable.

It is fair to say that the pace of climate change has surprised many, leading to increased unpredictability. While the warming trend is expected to benefit the production of forests and croplands in colder regions, this advantage holds only if climate change does not bring additional challenges. However, the same warming trend is likely to favour the spread of serious plant pests and pathogens, which are dispersing northwards and colonising new regions, while existing pests and pathogens may become more severe.

Climate variability is also expected to increase, leading to more intense droughts and heatwaves, which could reduce the production of forests and croplands while making plants more vulnerable to pest infestations. These problems will always be region-specific, as crop species, varieties, and forests differ, and regions will face varying levels of exposure to emerging threats. As a result, local solutions will be essential.

This is where Precilience steps in. Our work package aims to understand how climate risks will impact crop and forest production across various regions in the Nordic countries and Estonia. We will assess anticipated changes in productivity and identify the most important abiotic and biotic risks associated with climate change. Moreover, we will establish living labs in different regions to listen and engage with local landowners, addressing their concerns and guiding our efforts to focus on the most serious risks which call for new kind of management. As the land remains fixed, and relocation is challenging for many, our goal is to develop solutions that support people’s livelihoods wherever they live.

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